Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.035368 0.040380 0.045890 0.052400 0.059892 0.068254 0.078309
2024-12-22 0.027219 0.033862 0.041846 0.052177 0.065235 0.081246 0.102455
2024-12-29 0.023600 0.031114 0.040711 0.053924 0.071741 0.095067 0.128140
2025-01-05 0.019830 0.027378 0.037495 0.052137 0.072938 0.101654 0.144696
2025-01-12 0.017274 0.024814 0.035349 0.051268 0.074933 0.109156 0.163020
2025-01-19 0.014926 0.022195 0.032729 0.049259 0.074837 0.113379 0.176738
2025-01-26 0.014008 0.021524 0.032800 0.051149 0.080650 0.126897 0.206192
2025-02-02 0.013209 0.020921 0.032865 0.052965 0.086458 0.140941 0.238118
2025-02-09 0.012504 0.020371 0.032925 0.054726 0.092293 0.155574 0.272749
2025-02-16 0.011477 0.019181 0.031812 0.054382 0.094487 0.164233 0.297897
2025-02-23 0.010697 0.018318 0.031141 0.054691 0.097787 0.175079 0.328219
2025-03-02 0.009827 0.017211 0.029937 0.053910 0.099004 0.182239 0.352383
2025-03-09 0.009330 0.016732 0.029813 0.055128 0.104146 0.197427 0.394547
2025-03-16 0.008620 0.015802 0.028797 0.054583 0.105890 0.206366 0.425453
2025-03-23 0.008306 0.015570 0.029030 0.056433 0.112494 0.225554 0.480158
2025-03-30 0.007554 0.014436 0.027456 0.054557 0.111360 0.228895 0.501161
2025-04-06 0.006994 0.013622 0.026418 0.053646 0.112094 0.236148 0.531696
2025-04-13 0.006357 0.012599 0.024878 0.051538 0.110050 0.237199 0.548131
2025-04-20 0.006205 0.012539 0.025263 0.053520 0.117094 0.258952 0.616215
2025-04-27 0.006051 0.012461 0.025599 0.055425 0.124169 0.281581 0.689605
2025-05-04 0.005898 0.012370 0.025898 0.057273 0.131309 0.305181 0.768792
2025-05-11 0.005563 0.011858 0.025250 0.056912 0.133230 0.316592 0.818174
2025-05-18 0.005309 0.011503 0.024914 0.057236 0.136819 0.332467 0.881647